Computable randomness is about more than probabilities

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense that we consider lower expectations (or sets of probabilities) instead of classical 'precise' probabilities. Secondly, instead of binary sequences, we consider sequences whose elements take values in some finite sample space. Interestingly, we find that every sequence is computably random with respect to at least one lower expectation, and that lower expectations that are more informative have fewer computably random sequences. This leads to the intriguing question whether every sequence is computably random with respect to a unique most informative lower expectation. We study this question in some detail and provide a partial answer

Forecasting postoperative delirium in older adult patients with Fast-and-Frugal decision trees

Postoperative delirium (POD) is associated with increased complication and mortality rates, particularly among older adult patients. However, guideline recommendations for POD detection and management are poorly implemented. Fast-and-frugal trees (FFTrees), which are simple prediction algorithms, may be useful in this context. We compared the capacity of simple FFTrees with two more complex models—namely, unconstrained classification trees (UDTs) and logistic regression (LogReg)—for the prediction of POD among older surgical patients in the perioperative setting. Models were trained and tested on the European BioCog project clinical dataset. Based on the entire dataset, two different FFTrees were developed for the pre-operative and postoperative settings. Within the pre-operative setting, FFTrees outperformed the more complex UDT algorithm with respect to predictive balanced accuracy, nearing the prediction level of the logistic regression. Within the postoperative setting, FFTrees outperformed both complex models. Applying the best-performing algorithms to the full datasets, we proposed an FFTree using four cues (Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), site of surgery, physical status and frailty status) for the pre-operative setting and an FFTree containing only three cues (duration of anesthesia, age and CCI) for the postoperative setting. Given that both FFTrees contained considerably fewer criteria, which can be easily memorized and applied by health professionals in daily routine, FFTrees could help identify patients requiring intensified POD screening

Computable randomness is about more than probabilities

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense that we consider lower expectations (or sets of probabilities) instead of classical 'precise' probabilities. Secondly, instead of binary sequences, we consider sequences whose elements take values in some finite sample space. Interestingly, we find that every sequence is computably random with respect to at least one lower expectation, and that lower expectations that are more informative have fewer computably random sequences. This leads to the intriguing question whether every sequence is computably random with respect to a unique most informative lower expectation. We study this question in some detail and provide a partial answer

Maturation-Induced Cloaking of Neutralization Epitopes on HIV-1 Particles

To become infectious, HIV-1 particles undergo a maturation process involving proteolytic cleavage of the Gag and Gag-Pol polyproteins. Immature particles contain a highly stable spherical Gag lattice and are impaired for fusion with target cells. The fusion impairment is relieved by truncation of the gp41 cytoplasmic tail (CT), indicating that an interaction between the immature viral core and gp41 within the particle represses HIV-1 fusion by an unknown mechanism. We hypothesized that the conformation of Env on the viral surface is regulated allosterically by interactions with the HIV-1 core during particle maturation. To test this, we quantified the binding of a panel of monoclonal antibodies to mature and immature HIV-1 particles by immunofluorescence imaging. Surprisingly, immature particles exhibited markedly enhanced binding of several gp41-specific antibodies, including two that recognize the membrane proximal external region (MPER) and neutralize diverse HIV-1 strains. Several of the differences in epitope exposure on mature and immature particles were abolished by truncation of the gp41 CT, thus linking the immature HIV-1 fusion defect with altered Env conformation. Our results suggest that perturbation of fusion-dependent Env conformational changes contributes to the impaired fusion of immature particles. Masking of neutralization-sensitive epitopes during particle maturation may contribute to HIV-1 immune evasion and has practical implications for vaccine strategies targeting the gp41 MPER

Functional outcome in older adults with joint pain and comorbidity: design of a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Joint pain is a highly prevalent condition in the older population. Only a minority of the older adults consult the general practitioner for joint pain, and during consultation joint pain is often poorly recognized and treated, especially when other co-existing chronic conditions are involved. Therefore, older adults with joint pain and comorbidity may have a higher risk of poor functional outcome and decreased quality of life (QoL), and possibly need more attention in primary care. The main purpose of the study is to explore functioning in older adults with joint pain and comorbidity, in terms of mobility, functional independence and participation and to identify possible predictors of poor functional outcome. The study will also identify predictors of decreased QoL. The results will be used to develop prediction models for the early identification of subgroups at high risk of poor functional outcome and decreased QoL. This may contribute to better targeting of treatment and to more effective health care in this population.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The study has been designed as a prospective cohort study, with measurements at baseline and after 6, 12 and 18 months. For the recruitment of 450 patients, 25 general practices will be approached. Patients are eligible for participation if they are 65 years or older, have at least two chronic conditions and report joint pain on most days. Data will be collected using various methods (i.e. questionnaires, physical tests, patient interviews and focus groups). We will measure different aspects of functioning (e.g. mobility, functional independence and participation) and QoL. Other measurements concern possible predictors of functioning and QoL (e.g. pain, co-existing chronic conditions, markers for frailty, physical performance, psychological factors, environmental factors and individual factors). Furthermore, health care utilization, health care needs and the meaning and impact of joint pain will be investigated from an older person's perspective.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In this paper, we describe the protocol of a prospective cohort study in Dutch older adults with joint pain and comorbidity and discuss the potential strengths and limitations of the study.</p

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Will emergency and surgical patients participate in and complete alcohol interventions? A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the everyday surgical life, staff may experience that patients with Alcohol Use Disorders (AUDs) seem reluctant to participate in alcohol intervention programs. The objective was therefore to assess acceptance of screening and intervention as well as adherence to the intervention program among emergency department (ED) and surgical patients with AUDs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic literature search was followed by extraction of acceptance and adherence rates in ED and surgical patients. Numbers needed to screen (NNS) were calculated. Subgroup analyses were carried out based on different study characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The literature search revealed 33 relevant studies. Of these, 31 were randomized trials, 28 were conducted in EDs and 31 evaluated the effect of brief alcohol intervention. Follow-up was mainly conducted after six and/or twelve months.</p> <p>Four in five ED patients accepted alcohol screening and two in three accepted participation in intervention. In surgical patients, two in three accepted screening and the intervention acceptance rate was almost 100%. The adherence rate was above 60% for up to twelve months in both ED and surgical patients. The NNS to identify one eligible AUD patient and to get one eligible patient to accept participation in alcohol intervention varied from a few up to 70 patients.</p> <p>The rates did not differ between randomized and non-randomized trials, brief and intensive interventions or validated and self-reported alcohol consumption. Adherence rates were not affected by patients' group allocation and type of follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Most emergency and surgical patients with AUD accept participation in alcohol screening and interventions and complete the intervention program.</p

Clinical course and prognosis of musculoskeletal pain in patients referred for physiotherapy: does pain site matter?

Background: Danish patients with musculoskeletal disorders are commonly referred for primary care physiotherapy treatment but little is known about their general health status, pain diagnoses, clinical course and prognosis. The objectives of this study were to 1) describe the clinical course of patients with musculoskeletal disorders referred to physiotherapy, 2) identify predictors associated with a satisfactory outcome, and 3) determine the influence of the primary pain site diagnosis relative to those predictors. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients (n = 2,706) newly referred because of musculoskeletal pain to 30 physiotherapy practices from January 2012 to May 2012. Data were collected via a web-based questionnaire 1–2 days prior to the first physiotherapy consultation and at 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months, from clinical records (including primary musculoskeletal symptom diagnosis based on the ICPC-2 classification system), and from national registry data. The main outcome was the Patient Acceptable Symptom State. Potential predictors were analysed using backwards step-wise selection during longitudinal Generalised Estimating Equation regression modelling. To assess the influence of pain site on these associations, primary pain site diagnosis was added to the model. Results: Of the patients included, 66% were female and the mean age was 48 (SD 15). The percentage of patients reporting their symptoms as acceptable was 32% at 6 weeks, 43% at 3 months and 52% at 6 months. A higher probability of satisfactory outcome was associated with place of residence, being retired, no compensation claim, less frequent pain, shorter duration of pain, lower levels of disability and fear avoidance, better mental health and being a non-smoker. Primary pain site diagnosis had little influence on these associations, and was not predictive of a satisfactory outcome. Conclusion: Only half of the patients rated their symptoms as acceptable at 6 months. Although satisfactory outcome was difficult to predict at an individual patient level, there were a number of prognostic factors that were associated with this outcome. These factors should be considered when developing generic prediction tools to assess the probability of satisfactory outcome in musculoskeletal physiotherapy patients, because the site of pain did not affect that prognostic association

Forest landscape ecology and global change: an introduction

Forest landscape ecology examines broad-scale patterns and processes and their interactions in forested systems and informs the management of these ecosystems. Beyond being among the richest and the most complex terrestrial systems, forest landscapes serve society by providing an array of products and services and, if managed properly, can do so sustainably. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the field of forest landscape ecology, including major historical and present topics of research, approaches, scales, and applications, particularly those concerning edges, fragmentation, connectivity, disturbance, and biodiversity. In addition, we discuss causes of change in forest landscapes, particularly land-use and management changes, and the expected structural and functional consequences that may result from these drivers. This chapter is intended to set the context and provide an overview for the remainder of the book and poses a broad set of questions related to forest landscape ecology and global change that need answers